SBIR & Research
SBIR Success Rate: What the Data Shows by Agency
Grant Writing Service Editorial Team
June 12, 2026 · 4 min read
Table of contents
Key takeaways
- NSF reports historical Phase I funding rates of 10 to 20 percent for full proposals, after its Project Pitch screen.
- NIH data published by the National Academies show overall SBIR and STTR success rates of 20 to 29 percent in fiscal years 2016 to 2019, with Phase I and Phase II combined.
- Figures quoted online often mix phases, agencies, and years, so check what a number counts before relying on it.
- The 2025 to 2026 lapse and new per-company application caps make recent rates hard to compare with earlier years.
There is no single SBIR success rate. It differs by agency, phase, and year, and the published figures count different things. The most reliable numbers available: NSF reports that historical Phase I funding rates for full proposals have been 10 to 20 percent, and NIH application data published by the National Academies show overall SBIR and STTR success rates of 20 to 29 percent in fiscal years 2016 to 2019, with Phase I and Phase II applications counted together. Phase II rates are usually higher because only Phase I awardees compete.
What the published data shows
| Source | What it counts | Figure |
|---|---|---|
| NSF America's Seed Fund | Phase I full proposals funded (only invited proposals, after the Project Pitch) | Historically 10 to 20 percent |
| NIH data in the National Academies' assessment of NIH SBIR and STTR (2022) | All NIH SBIR and STTR applications, both phases | 20 percent (2016), 25 percent (2017), 29 percent (2018), 29 percent (2019) |
| Same assessment | NIH Phase I awardees who went on to win a Phase II (not a success rate) | About 25 percent for the 2016 cohort |
| National Academies review of SBIR at NSF (2015) | NSF success rates in the years that review covered | 14 to 21 percent, apart from one year with unusually few applications |
Several things are missing from that table on purpose. We could not find a current, official program-wide Phase I rate for NIH, a single published rate for DoD, or any agency figure covering the 2025 and 2026 cycles. Many websites quote "15 to 20 percent for Phase I and 30 to 50 percent for Phase II" without a source. Treat those as rough folklore, not data.
Why the numbers you see disagree
Different denominators. NSF's rate counts full proposals, but every full proposal follows an invited Project Pitch, so many companies were screened out before they were counted. An agency that counts every submission will look more selective for the same quality of field.
Phases mixed together. NIH's historical figures combine Phase I and Phase II. Because Phase II applicants are already Phase I winners, combining them raises the average above what a first-time Phase I applicant faces.
Averages over very different competitions. NIH success varies widely by institute, and DoD runs SBIR through many components with narrow, topic-based solicitations where a topic may draw a handful of proposals or dozens. A single agency-wide number hides that spread.
Year-to-year swings. Application volume rises and falls (NIH received about 9,200 applications in 2016 and about 7,500 in 2019, per the National Academies table), while budgets move separately. The rate is a ratio of the two.
How 2025 and 2026 change the picture
Program authority lapsed on October 1, 2025, and no new SBIR or STTR awards could be made until the reauthorization was signed on April 13, 2026. Agencies reopened on different schedules and some worked through backlogs of proposals selected before the lapse, so rates for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 will not be comparable to earlier years.
The reauthorization also requires agencies to cap how many proposals a company can submit. HHS, which includes NIH, now accepts no more than nine new and resubmission Phase I, Fast-Track, and Direct to Phase II applications and contract proposals per small business per fiscal year, for due dates on or after April 13, 2026. NSF's current solicitation limits each company to two Project Pitches in any 12 months. Caps reduce the volume from companies that used to submit many proposals, which may change success rates in ways nobody can yet measure. They also mean each submission uses up a scarce slot, so a weak proposal now costs more than it used to.
What moves your odds
You cannot control the budget or the competition. You can control whether your proposal is competitive:
- Fit. Apply to the agency and topic whose mission matches your technology. Choosing an agency because of a rumored higher rate rarely works, because review is about fit.
- Compliance. Proposals that break page limits, omit required documents, or have lapsed registrations are returned before review.
- A sharp statement of aims. Reviewers judge the whole proposal against it. See our Specific Aims writing guide.
- Feasibility evidence. Even informal preliminary data moves a proposal out of the speculative pile.
- A believable market. Commercialization is scored at every phase; see our guide to the SBIR commercialization plan.
Resubmission is the biggest lever
A declined proposal comes with feedback: at NIH, a summary statement with the study section's critiques; at NSF and DoD, reviewer comments or a debrief. That feedback is written by the audience you need to convince. Group the critiques into themes, answer each one, and say plainly what changed. The common winning pattern is not a new idea but the same idea with stronger feasibility data, a tighter aims page, or a more credible market case. Under the new application caps, budgeting two cycles for one strong project is usually a better use of slots than spreading submissions across several weaker ones.
Be skeptical of anyone who quotes you a success rate they can deliver. No one can guarantee an SBIR award. What good preparation does is make sure the parts you control are not the reason you lose. For the drafting process itself, start with how to write an SBIR proposal, and for what each phase demands, see SBIR Phase I vs Phase II. If you want a team to write or rebuild a resubmission from your reviewer feedback, our SBIR resubmission writers do exactly that.
